Our ETS Future 'Will Not Come Cheaply

AUSTRALIA will be unable to produce affordable baseload power supplies while meeting its emissions targets under present policy, new research has found.

A study by Melbourne's Grattan Institute, to be published today, warns that while carbon pricing will help make low-emissions technologies competitive, it will not be enough without big structural and policy changes.

Tony Wood, the institute's energy program director, says governments face "an acute intellectual and policy challenge" steering a course between inadequate support for low-emissions technologies or unduly favouring one technology over another. He cautions "Australia's move to a low-carbon future will be too expensive unless they do."

The Grattan research stresses markets as the primary mechanism by which Australia can reduce its emissions, but it says markets cannot work properly unless governments optimise regulatory and policy frameworks.

The study also warns against letting ideology limit the scope for manoeuvre by preventing serious evaluation of carbon capture and storage and nuclear energy. "A range of technologies available today can generate electricity at or below 0.2 tonnes of carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour and have significant scale-up projection," the Grattan research finds.

"Yet none currently represents more than 2 per cent of Australia's electricity supply and

their future technical and economic potential is shrouded in uncertainty."

The report finds further refinement of the underlying technologies of low-emission energy options will be the most important tool for their future development and commercialisation.

It reminds governments of their roles overseeing the development of new transmission networks and pipelines, resource maps, market frameworks, regulations and engineering skills.

The Grattan researchers urge the commonwealth to ensure the carbon pricing scheme works properly by setting long-term emission caps and call on all governments to act to ensure there is a level playing field for all power-generating technologies.

The report's authors urge the removal of obstacles that impede technologies such as wind and geothermal from connecting at large-scale to electricity grids built around the needs of very large fossil-fuel plants.

Our ETS Future 'Will Not Come Cheaply

Tony Abbott to Warn of Carbon Pay Cuts

TONY Abbott will use tomorrow's resumption of parliament to renew his attack on Labor's carbon tax by using Treasury economic modelling to warn it will slash wages.

The Opposition Leader will time his attacks to coincide with speculation about Julia Gillard's leadership as he seeks to put pressure on the government in the first sitting week of the year.

As the Coalition released its economic briefing notes yesterday, Labor ministers counter-attacked, with Wayne Swan condemning the opposition's pledge to relieve mining magnates such as Gina Rinehart and Clive Palmer of Labor's mining tax but refusing to implement a disability insurance scheme.

Mr Abbott spent much of last year attacking Labor over its carbon tax of $23 a tonne, which will take effect from July 1.

Sources confirmed yesterday Mr Abbott would return to the issue in parliament this week, with the Coalition economic note warning that the carbon tax would cause "a large and continually growing fall-off" in gross domestic product.

"On Treasury's own modelling, the cumulative loss of output will be $32 billion by 2020 -- and that's in real 2010 dollars (ie the figure is not being driven by inflation)," the paper says.

"What's more, this will rise to the enormous figure of over $1 trillion by 2050."

The opposition claims the carbon tax would cut real wages by 1 per cent by 2020.

"To put this figure in perspective, for someone on current average adult full-time earnings (approx $70k), this would be equivalent to a cut in their salary of around $600 a year," it says.

Coalition sources said the figures would form the basis of the opposition's attack in question time this week.

But the Treasurer said the Coalition stand was "weak and pathetic", and told ABC television the media was fanning the leadership speculation that has prevented Labor gaining traction on other issues in the past week.

Industrial Relations Minister Bill Shorten joined in, accusing the Coalition of concealing its workplace policy and of wanting to damage workers by introducing greater industrial "flexibility".

"When conservatives use the term flexibility, they actually mean that if you're poor . . . it's time to take a pay cut," Mr Shorten told the Ten Network's Meet the Press.

"Why is it . . . Coalition DNA says the only way the rich can get richer is with low-paid workers getting penalty-rate cuts?"

Mr Abbott, who has been wary about announcing industrial relations policies for fear of sparking Labor claims he would return to the Howard government's Work Choices regime, said Labor's Fair Work Act had caused problems with flexibility and militancy in the workplace and was damaging the nation's economic productivity.

Many Would Back Repealing Carbon Price

Half the country supports Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's stance that he would overturn the carbon pricing scheme should the coalition with the next election, a news survey shows.

The weekly online Essential Research survey released on Monday shows the prospect of a coalition election win remains clear cut, with only a minor increase in support for Labor recorded in the latest week.

Labor support among voters rose to 45 per cent from 44 per cent last week on a two-party preferred basis, compared with 55 per cent for the coalition, down from 56 per cent previously.

Fifty per cent of the 1053 respondents supported Mr Abbott's stance that he would repeal the carbon price legislation on winning power, while 36 per cent said they opposed such a move.